UK universities have recorded a significant decline in Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) issuance, while Student visa refusals have increased sharply, according to new data from Enroly.
Figures for the September 2026 intake show that CAS issuance fell by 23.7% year-on-year across Enroly’s UK university partner network, while Student visa refusals increased by 43.5%.
The findings raise concerns about the growing difficulties international students face in progressing from university acceptance to obtaining a UK Student visa.
UK CAS Issuance Falls as Student Visa Refusals Increase
According to Enroly’s October 2026 update, international student acceptances declined by 13.8%, while CAS issuance fell by 23.7%.
The proportion of accepted students who progressed to receiving a CAS dropped from 76% in September 2025 to 57.2% in September 2026.
Meanwhile, Student visa refusals increased by 43.5% compared with the previous year, exceeding the 30% increase reported in Enroly’s earlier briefing.
Among students who had received a visa decision, 4.5% were refused. This compares with a refusal rate of 3.7% when calculated against all CAS issued, including those where a visa decision was still pending.
These figures indicate that international students are experiencing difficulties both before and after reaching the visa application stage.
Which Countries Are Most Affected?
Enroly’s findings reveal considerable differences between international student recruitment markets.
Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India and Ghana collectively accounted for 79.6% of all Student visa refusals recorded within its network.
Earlier research also identified a concentration of refusals among seven major international student markets. Read our previous article on UK Student Visa Refusals and the Seven Countries Most Affected for further details.
Ghana recorded the highest refusal rate among the highlighted markets at 43.9%, followed by Sri Lanka at 30%, Bangladesh at 21% and Pakistan at 19.4%.
Why Are Fewer International Students Receiving a CAS?
The decline in CAS issuance reflects several difficulties affecting international student recruitment.
According to Enroly, tighter Home Office compliance requirements have contributed to reduced recruitment from Pakistan and Bangladesh, with some universities temporarily suspending recruitment from these markets.
Financial difficulties have also affected students’ ability to progress from university acceptance to CAS issuance.
Nigeria provides a particularly significant example. Despite a 1.6% increase in university acceptances, CAS issuance declined by 43.9%.
The proportion of accepted Nigerian students receiving a CAS fell from 70.5% to 38.9%. Enroly attributed this decline largely to currency depreciation and stricter financial checks.
However, not all international markets experienced a decline. CAS issuance increased by 15.5% for Nepalese students and 2% for Chinese students.
What Does This Mean for UK Student Visa Applicants?
The latest figures highlight the importance of understanding that receiving an offer from a UK university does not guarantee CAS issuance or Student visa approval.
Universities must meet their sponsorship obligations, while applicants must satisfy the relevant Student visa requirements.
Prospective students should carefully review their university’s CAS issuance conditions and ensure that their financial evidence and supporting documents meet the applicable requirements.
Enroly expects affordability concerns, stricter compliance requirements and changes to post-study work rights to continue influencing international student recruitment.
Further data from the January 2027 intake is expected to provide a clearer indication of whether these pressures will continue.
How Can Morgan Smith Immigration Help?
With Student visa refusals increasing, preparing an application that meets the relevant Home Office requirements is particularly important.
Morgan Smith Immigration has over 20 years of experience in UK immigration law. Our immigration lawyers can assess your eligibility, review supporting documents and provide professional guidance throughout the Student visa application process.
If you are planning to study in the UK or require assistance with a Student visa application, contact Morgan Smith Immigration on 0203 959 3335 or email [email protected] for professional legal advice.
