Britain’s population is expected to continue rising over the coming decades, with migration forecast to become the main source of growth, according to new figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The latest projections suggest the UK population could reach around 71 million by 2034 before peaking at approximately 72.6 million during the mid-2050s. The increase is expected despite a falling birth rate and an ageing population.
ONS estimates indicate that around 7.3 million people will move to Britain over the next decade, including returning British nationals. During the same period, approximately 5.1 million people are expected to leave the country, resulting in projected net migration of 2.2 million.
Birth Rates Falling Behind Deaths
The data also highlights a major demographic shift across the UK. According to the projections, deaths are expected to outnumber births from this year onwards, meaning future population growth will depend entirely on net migration.
By 2035, annual deaths are forecast to exceed births by more than 100,000, reflecting the long-term impact of lower fertility rates and an ageing population.
The ONS stated that migration trends remain heavily influenced by government policy, economic performance and labour market demand, meaning future figures could still change significantly.
The projections have already reignited political debate surrounding immigration policy and long-term population planning.
Chris Philp, the Shadow Home Secretary, criticised the forecasts, saying: “This is a deeply worrying projection for the future of the country. High levels of immigration place increasing pressure on housing, healthcare and public services.”
He added: “Most of these arrivals will come through legal migration routes that Parliament has the power to reform. A future Conservative government would introduce a strict annual migration cap and tighten the rules surrounding long-term settlement.”
Mr Philp also argued that immigration policy should focus primarily on attracting highly skilled workers while reducing lower-skilled migration routes.
Government Says Reforms Are Reducing Numbers
The Government has pointed to recent immigration reforms as evidence that migration levels are already beginning to decline.
Official estimates for the year ending June 2025 placed net migration at 204,000, significantly below previous post-pandemic highs.
A Home Office spokesman said: “Net migration has fallen considerably as the Government continues restoring control over the immigration system and reducing reliance on overseas labour.”
The spokesman added: “Although these projections do not yet fully reflect recent policy reforms, further changes are being introduced to lower migration levels while continuing to attract highly skilled individuals who contribute to the UK economy.”
Immigration Policies Continue to Tighten
Successive governments have introduced tougher immigration measures over recent years in an effort to reduce overall migration figures.
These changes have included higher salary thresholds for skilled worker visas, restrictions on overseas students bringing dependants and tighter conditions for settlement applications.
The Government has also announced plans to extend the qualifying period for indefinite leave to remain from five years to ten years for most migrants, alongside broader reforms affecting family migration and refugee status.
Future Migration Levels Remain Uncertain
The ONS stressed that future migration figures will depend largely on economic conditions and political decisions made over the coming years.
Under stricter immigration policies, net migration could fall substantially below current forecasts. However, more liberal migration rules combined with stronger labour demand could lead to significantly higher numbers.
While the latest projections suggest slower growth than earlier estimates, migration is still expected to remain the key factor shaping the future size of the UK population for decades to come.
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