Care homes risk severe staff shortages unless the government invests billions to offset the impact of its UK care worker visa crackdown, warns Professor Brian Bell, chair of the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC). With the Home Office scrapping the care worker visa route to cut net migration, the sector faces a looming crisis unless wages rise to attract British workers.
The £1bn-Per-Hour Pay Dilemma
Bell estimates that raising care worker pay by just £1 per hour would cost £1bn annually, a necessary measure to fill gaps left by restricted overseas recruitment. The government’s “grand bargain” hinges on a Fair Pay Agreement to align care wages with NHS roles, but funding remains uncertain.
“It’s going to cost money,” Bell told The i Paper. “If the Chancellor doesn’t find the cash, we’re back to square one: no UK recruits and no international route.” (The i Paper)
Immigration Cuts and the “Youth Experience” Stopgap
Net migration is projected to fall to 200,000 by 2026, exacerbating labour shortages in care, hospitality, and retail. Bell suggests a proposed EU-UK “youth experience” scheme, allowing under-30s to work temporarily could ease shortages without spiking long-term migration.
“Young people coming for two years will work in hospitality or care, pay taxes, and rarely claim benefits,” he noted, dismissing concerns over visa switching. (The i Paper)
The Bottom Line
The visa crackdown leaves Reeves with a stark choice: fund higher wages or risk collapse in a sector reliant on foreign labour. As Bell puts it, “There’s a narrow window to fix this—and it won’t be cheap.” (The i Paper)
A Ticking Time Bomb for the Treasury
With care homes already at breaking point and the UK care worker visa crackdown set to halve net migration, the government’s “grand bargain” looks increasingly like a high-stakes gamble.
Now, as the policy takes effect, the critical question emerges: Will billions materialise to offset the visa crackdown’s impact on care worker wages? Furthermore, can youth mobility schemes truly plug the gaps left by restricted recruitment or will these measures prove too little, too late? Most alarmingly, could vulnerable patients become collateral damage in this immigration showdown, left to suffer the consequences of political calculations?
The coming months will reveal whether this was a bold step toward reform or the moment Britain’s care time bomb started ticking louder than ever.
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