Keir Starmer’s flagship “one in, one out” migrant deal was introduced with the promise of restoring control over Channel crossings while maintaining an orderly and fair asylum system. The arrangement, agreed with France, was designed to deter illegal boat journeys. However, five months into the scheme, early figures suggest that the policy may already be exposing serious flaws and may not be delivering the control the government promised.
More Arrivals Than Removals: A Troubling Imbalance
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has confirmed that since the pilot began in mid-September, 350 migrants have arrived in Britain under the scheme, while only 281 have been removed back to France. This leaves a discrepancy of 69 individuals, meaning more people have entered the UK than have been returned.
If the primary measure of success is reducing the number of irregular migrants remaining in Britain, these numbers raise immediate concerns. A system built on balance appears, at least so far, to be operating unevenly.
The government presented the deal as a deterrent mechanism. Yet if removals remain lower than arrivals, critics may argue that the policy risks becoming more symbolic than transformative.
The Wider Context: Crossings Continue Regardless
Perhaps more concerning is the broader migration picture. Since mid-September, over 10,000 migrants have crossed the Channel in small boats, demonstrating that the deal has not yet slowed the overall flow.
While 281 removals may appear significant on paper, they represent only a small fraction of the total number arriving illegally. This suggests that organised smuggling networks remain largely undeterred and the Channel route continues to function as a major entry point.
In this context, the “one in, one out” scheme risks being overwhelmed by the very scale of the crisis it was meant to address.
Implementation Problems and Early Weaknesses
Mahmood acknowledged that one of the scheme’s earliest difficulties was practical rather than political: authorities struggled to identify enough migrants willing to enter Britain through the legal pathway.
As she explained, there was initially insufficient awareness of the new route, with the government needing to “compete with organised immigration crime” to communicate its message.
This admission highlights a structural weakness. A policy that depends on voluntary uptake cannot succeed if the intended participants are unaware of it or distrustful of official systems. Smugglers, by contrast, offer immediate and direct routes however dangerous and often maintain stronger influence over migrant decision-making.
A Pilot Scheme or a Political Illusion?
France has consistently described the arrangement as a pilot, estimating returns of around 50 migrants per week, with a full review after one year. This framing matters.
As a pilot, modest numbers may be expected. But as a flagship government policy, public expectations are far higher. The political narrative surrounding “one in, one out” implies a decisive solution to irregular migration. The reality, at least so far, looks far more limited.
Is It Successful? It Depends on the Measure
Whether the scheme is deemed successful depends entirely on the parameter used.
- If success means removing more migrants than are admitted, then current figures suggest it is not yet delivering.
- If success means testing cooperation with France, then it may represent a small step forward.
- If success means deterring Channel crossings, the continued arrivals indicate little impact so far.
Ultimately, the policy appears to be functioning more as a controlled exchange mechanism than a deterrent strategy.
Conclusion: A Deal on the Edge of Credibility
The “one in, one out” deal was introduced as a bold attempt to regain control of Britain’s borders while preserving legal routes for asylum. Yet with only 281 removals compared to 350 arrivals, the scheme has already exposed an uncomfortable imbalance.
At best, it is an experiment still finding its footing. At worst, it risks becoming another migration headline that promises far more than it delivers.
As crossings continue and numbers rise, the deal now sits on the edge not only of operational challenge, but of political credibility.
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