Two high-profile e-petitions opposing government plans to lengthen the qualifying period for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) will be debated in Westminster Hall on 8 September 2025. The debate, to be led by Ben Goldsborough MP, comes in response to proposals set out in the government’s May 2025 white paper, Restoring Control Over the Immigration System.
The Proposed Changes
Under the current rules, most migrants can apply for ILR after five years continuous lawful residence in the UK. The white paper proposes extending this period to ten years, introducing an “earned settlement” scheme for those making significant economic and societal contributions under the Points-Based Immigration System.
The proposals would not apply to partners of British citizens or victims of domestic abuse, who will retain the five-year pathway. Citizens with rights under the EU Settlement Scheme will also remain protected under the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement. The government has not confirmed whether other routes currently offering a five-year settlement period, such as the Hong Kong British National (Overseas) visa, will be exempt.
Impact on Current Migrants
A key question remains unresolved: will these changes apply only to future arrivals, or also to those already on the path to settlement? Government statements have so far avoided committing to either approach, but the technical annex to the white paper suggests the Home Office anticipates that people already in the UK could be affected. This view is reinforced by reports in the BBC and Financial Times indicating that existing visa holders may face extended qualifying periods, though there may be mitigations for those close to eligibility.
This uncertainty has drawn attention from MPs across parties, with questions tabled in Parliament urging clarity. The government has said the matter will be addressed during the forthcoming consultation process, which has yet to begin.
The Petitions
The first petition, Keep the 5-Year Indefinite Leave to Remain Pathway for Existing Skilled Worker Visa Holders, calls for the proposed changes to apply only to new arrivals. The Skilled Worker route, including the Health and Care Worker visa, is a major pathway for skilled labour, particularly in the NHS. Open until 23 November 2025, the petition had attracted 157,000 signatures by mid-August.
The second petition, Keep 5-Year Indefinite Leave to Remain Terms for Hong Kong British National (Overseas) Visas, seeks to preserve the existing pathway for BNO visa holders. Introduced in January 2021, the visa was part of the UK’s response to the political situation in Hong Kong. The petition has gained 108,000 signatures and remains open until 25 December 2025.
In both cases, the government has reiterated that these matters will be addressed in the formal consultation, while affirming its broader commitments to the respective communities.
Expert Commentary
The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford has argued that a ten-year route would make the UK’s settlement policy more restrictive than that of most other high-income countries, with limited impact on reducing net migration. The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) has warned that up to 1.7 million migrants may now be “in limbo”, facing uncertainty over their path to settlement and citizenship.
Advocacy groups, including Hong Kong Watch, have cautioned that changes to the BNO route could undermine trust and create significant personal and financial hardship for affected families. Co-founder Benedict Rogers has highlighted risks such as loss of consular protection abroad, restricted access to retirement savings and loss of eligibility for home fees at UK universities.
Next Steps
The government has confirmed that the earned settlement scheme will be subject to public consultation later this year, during which details of affected visa routes and transitional arrangements will be set out. Until then, migrants, employers and advocacy groups will continue to seek clarity on how the changes will be applied and whether current visa holders will be protected from retrospective measures.
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